'The worst of all scenarios': Canola farmers feeling ‘vulnerable’ amid dual U.S.-China trade wars
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‘Sitting between two elephants’: Government and industry response
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With both China and the U.S. planning to impose tariffs in the coming weeks, farmers are in an increasingly precarious position, and White warns the situation with China could get worse.
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The planned March 20 tariffs are separate from China’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation into imports of Canadian canola seed, which White calls “the really big shoe that has not dropped yet.”
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He says canola seed exports are “by far” the biggest part of what Canada ships to China.
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Andre Harpe, chair of the Alberta Canola Producers Commission, has said “it’s kind of like sitting between two elephants” when referring to China and the U.S.
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Harpe, who farms near Grande Prairie, said companies have already stopped buying canola.
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Kyle Larkin, executive director of Grain Growers of Canada, said half of Canadian grain exports go to the U.S. and China.
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“Losing access or facing exorbitant tariffs in both markets at once is a threat farmers cannot afford to absorb,” he said in a statement.
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“We’re calling on the (federal) government to take immediate action — first, to engage with China to find a resolution and second, to establish a compensation plan to cover the financial losses farmers are facing.”
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The CCC warned that China’s tariffs were “prohibitively high.”
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Chris Davison, president of the CCC, said the fallout will be felt across the industry, noting China is a top market for Canadian canola that represents close to $5 billion in export value.
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“New tariffs from China on Canadian canola oil and meal will have a devastating impact on canola farmers and the broader value chain at a time of increased trade and geopolitical uncertainty,” he said. “We urge the federal government to immediately engage with China, with a view to resolving this issue.”
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The federal government has expressed disappointment over China’s tariffs and pledged support for farmers.
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“Our hard-working farmers and fishers provide world-class food to Canadians and international trading partners,” International Trade and Economic Development Minister Mary Ng, Agriculture and Agri-Food minister Lawrence MacAulay and Fisheries Minister Diane Lebouthillier said in a joint statement issued last week.
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“We are steadfast in our commitment to defend Canadian workers and we will stand shoulder-to-shoulder in our support for Canada’s hard-working farmers and fishers in the agricultural and fishing sectors.”
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This is not the first time China has restricted Canadian canola imports.
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In 2019, China revoked Canadian export licences for canola, widely seen as political retaliation for Canada’s detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. At the time, China had been the largest importer of Canadian canola, with imports peaking at $2.8 billion in 2018. Alberta’s exports to China that year were valued at $831 million, representing about 41 per cent of its total canola seed exports.
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The import restrictions caused a sharp decline in trade, with the value of Alberta canola seed exports to China dropping 73 per cent in 2019.
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White says the current situation highlights the need for Canada to reduce its reliance on the U.S. and China by expanding domestic and alternative markets for canola.