Big 12 MBB power rankings: Houston on top, K-State jumps as conference readies for early reveal of the top NCAA seeds
The Big 12 is positioned for at least four teams to be included in the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s early reveal of the top 16 seeds.
Welcome to a weekly feature on the Hotline. We’ll break down Big 12 basketball using key metrics (NET rankings, KenPom ratings, etc.), our observations and a dose of old-fashioned sarcasm (when needed) — all in the name of providing fans with the state-of-play in one of the nation’s toughest conferences.
(Results listed for games in the past week.)
The NCAA Tournament selection committee’s early reveal of the top 16 overall seeds marks the unofficial start of the stretch run, with exponentially more attention on the sport than existed over the previous three months.
What can the Big 12 expect when the committee shares its list of high seeds Saturday at 9:30 a.m. on CBS?
It probably won’t claim a No. 1. Those coveted slots likely will be assigned to Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama and Duke.
Houston has a slim chance for the top line but is probably destined for a No. 2 seed.
The Big 12 will be well-represented in the bottom half of the top 16, however. Arizona, Iowa State and Texas Tech are close to lock status for No. 3 and 4 seeds.
But what of Kansas? The No. 1 team in the AP preseason poll looked the part with early wins over Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina but has stumbled badly in conference play.
The Jayhawks own five conference losses and are headed for their second consecutive middle-tier finish.
Their resume is solid, with five Quadrant I wins and no bad losses. But plenty of teams have similar profiles to Kansas, which has dropped three of its past six.
Don’t be surprised either way. The Jayhawks have been a regular in the committee’s early seed reveal over the years, but that’s clearly not the case this season.
And to a certain extent, it’s relevant.
Last year, 14 teams seeded by the committee in mid-February held their ground and received top-four spots in their regions on Selection Sunday.
To the power rankings …
1. Houston (20-4/12-1 Big 12)Results: won at Colorado 69-59, beat Baylor 76-65Best win: at KansasWorst loss: vs. San Diego StateNET ranking: 3Comment: The toughest stretch of the Big 12 schedule begins for the Cougars, who visit Tucson on Saturday and have Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Baylor on the agenda in the final three weeks. We see a 17-3 finishing record in conference play, with 18-2 realistic only if they beat Arizona.
2. Arizona (17-7/11-2)Results: beat Texas Tech 82-73, lost at Kansas State 73-70Best win: vs. Iowa StateWorst loss: at Kansas StateNET ranking: 10Comment: How tough is Arizona? The answer to that evergreen question will become clear this weekend. If the Wildcats stand tall against Houston, the toughest of the tough, they can win a rock fight in the NCAAs.
3. Texas Tech (18-5/9-3)Results: lost at Arizona 82-73Best win: at HoustonWorst loss: vs. St. Joseph’sNET ranking: 8Comment: The loss in Tucson changes absolutely nothing about the Red Raiders’ profile or our opinion of their potential. But it does make the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 tournament more difficult to attain.
4. Iowa State (19-5/9-4)Results: beat TCU 82-52, won at UCF 77-65Best win: at Texas TechWorst loss: vs. Kansas StateNET ranking: 7Comment: Fairly clear with hindsight that one shot — Caleb Love’s buzzer-beating heave — cost the Cyclones three losses: They proceeded to wilt against Arizona in overtime, and the hangover lasted through subsequent games against the Kansas schools. Far better for it to have occurred in early February than early March, however.
5. Kansas (17-7/8-5)Results: lost at Kansas State 81-73, beat Colorado 71-59Best win: vs. DukeWorst loss: at Kansas StateNET ranking: 11Comment: A cynic might argue that with NIL legal across Division I, the Jayhawks have, much like SEC football programs, lost their advantage.
6. Baylor (15-9/7-6)Results: beat UCF 91-76, lost at Houston 76-65Best win: vs. St. John’sWorst loss: vs. TCUNET ranking: 26Comment: If the Bears tighten their defense by a single turn of the screw, they will be an extremely difficult out in the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments. The offense is as efficient as any in the country.
7. Kansas State (13-11/7-6)Results: beat Kansas 81-73 and Arizona 73-70Best win: at Iowa StateWorst loss: vs. LibertyNET ranking: 70Comment: The Hotline cannot believe we are typing this sentence but, yes, the Wildcats are surging onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. The main flaw in their resume — two Quadrant III losses — isn’t fatal. But they cannot afford a third.
8. Brigham Young (16-8/7-6)Results: lost at Cincinnati 84-66, won at West Virginia 73-69Best win: at West VirginiaWorst loss: at ProvidenceNET ranking: 40Comment: The Cougars haven’t materially changed their bubble status, and it’s starting to get a bit late in the game. They don’t want to leave their fate to the selection committee.
9. West Virginia (15-9/6-7)Results: lost at TCU 65-60, beat Utah 72-61, lost to BYU 73-69Best win: at KansasWorst loss: vs. Arizona StateNET ranking: 43Comment: Not something we would have predicted when the Mountaineers left Lawrence with a one-point victory, and 10-2 record, on New Year’s Eve: They are perilously close to the NCAA bubble and have a sneaky-tough finishing stretch.
10. TCU (12-11/5-7)Results: beat West Virginia 65-60, lost at Iowa State 82-52Best win: at BaylorWorst loss: vs. UtahNET ranking: 80Comment: In the muddled middle of the Big 12 standings, eight teams are separated by two losses. A favorable stretch-run schedule offers the Horned Frogs a chance to climb above the masses.
11. Cincinnati (15-9/5-8)Results: won at UCF 93-83, beat BYU 84-66 and Utah 85-75Best win: vs. DaytonWorst loss: at UtahNET ranking: 48Comment: The nine total defeats are the result of two four-game losing streaks in conference play and a one-off loss at Villanova. The current winning streak is the Bearcats’ third of at least three games.
12. UCF (13-11/4-9)Results: lost to Cincinnati 93-83, at Baylor 91-76 and to Iowa State 77-65Best win: at Texas TechWorst loss: vs. LSUNET ranking: 72Comment: That’s five losses in a row (and seven in the past eight games) for a team that opponents have figured out. Can the Knights make the necessary adjustments in time to salvage what was once a promising season?
13. Utah (13-11/5-8)Results: beat Colorado 72-59, lost at West Virginia 72-61 and Cincinnati 85-75Best win: at TCUWorst loss: vs. IowaNET ranking: 81Comment: Too early to know if Craig Smith has done enough to secure a fourth season in Salt Lake City. But our gut says it’s trending that way.
14. Oklahoma State (12-11/4-8)Results: beat Arizona State 86-73Best win: vs. Kansas StateWorst loss: vs. FAUNET ranking: 97Comment: A nine-point loss at Houston might be Oklahoma State’s best result of the season, which pretty much sums up the past three months in Stillwater. Actually, make that the past six months.
15. Arizona State (12-11/3-9)Results: lost at Oklahoma State 86-73Best win: vs. Saint Mary’sWorst loss: vs. UCFNET ranking: 65Comment: We have not reached the end of the Bobby Hurley era, but that moment is quickly becoming visible on the horizon. And we wonder if even Hurley himself is starting to realize it.
16. Colorado (9-15/0-13)Results: lost at Utah 72-59, to Houston 69-59 and at Kansas 71-59Best win: vs. UConnWorst loss: at Oklahoma StateNET ranking: 107Comment: Only a handful of coaches in Division I have been employed by their current school longer than Tad Boyle, who took charge in Boulder in 2010 — before the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12. That’s our only comment on Boyle, for now.
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