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Eagles mailbag: Does Vic Fangio's 0-8 record vs. Patrick Mahomes matter?
With the Philadelphia Eagles set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, let's do a mailbag before media coverage really ramps up this week. Questions solicited from Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads. This will be Part I of a two-part mailbag.
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With the Philadelphia Eagles set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, let's do a mailbag because media coverage really ramps up this week. Questions solicited from Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads. This will be Part I of a two-part mailbag.
Question from @MNovak88: Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 vs. Vic Fangio as a head coach or defensive coordinator. Should we worry about Mahomes knowing exactly how to beat Fangioâs scheme or is it more of a âMahomes played against some teams with bad defensive personnel or bad offensesâ stat?
We know that Fangio's head coaching tenure didn't go well. His Broncos teams went 19-30 in three seasons, and he was fired. That's nothing new. We also know that Fangio played in the same division as the Chiefs, who went 38-11 during the three years Fangio coached the Broncos. So, you know, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that great Chiefs teams beat up on Fangio's bad Broncos teams.
The Chiefs also beat the Dolphins twice in 2023, once during the regular season, and once during the playoffs, when Fangio was their defensive coordinator.
But really, it wasn't Fangio's defenses that lost those games. In chronological order, Fangio's Broncos and Dolphins teams scored 6, 3, 16, 16, 9, 24, 14, and 7 points against the Chiefs' defense in those games, or an average of 11.9 points per game. The Chiefs also scored 6 (!) defensive or special teams touchdowns in those games. Spoiler: If the Eagles only score 12 points and they give up a defensive touchdown in the Super Bowl, Fangio defenses will be 0-9 against Mahomes.
OK, so the Broncos' and Dolphins' offenses stunk against the Chiefs. Cool. But how many points did the Chiefs score against their defenses? Well, if you exclude the six defensive touchdowns, the Chiefs averaged 21.6 points per game, well short of their season averages of 29.9 in 2019, 28.5 in 2020, and 29.4 in 2021.
The Broncos' and Dolphins' defensive DVOA rankings in Fangio's tenures:
⢠2019 Broncos: 13th⢠2020 Broncos: 15th⢠2021 Broncos: 21st⢠2023 Dolphins: 19th
The 2024 Eagles finished 1st in defensive DVOA, and if we're including the playoffs, 1st in yards allowed, first in points allowed, and 3rd in takeaways per game. It's pretty safe to say the 2024 Eagles defense is better than any of Fangio defenses that faced Mahomes previously.Â
So I guess what I've gone a long way to say here is that Fangio's previous record against Mahomes is rather meaningless to me.
Question from @perfectthatgames (via Bluesky): I think most true Philly fans love Carson Wentz for what he did, and genuinely believe the Eagles wouldnât have been in the Super Bowl without his play in 2017, BUT what would happen if Mahomes gets hurt and Wentz has to try to lead KC to a Super Bowl win?Â
Wentz was a great player in 2017 before he got hurt, and I agree that if he wasn't on that team, there's no way in hell the Eagles get the 1 seed and likely wouldn't haven't made the Super Bowl.Â
Now... he stinks. He's a below average No. 2. If Wentz has to save the day for the Chiefs, that likely won't go very well for them.Â
Question from generichandleguy (via Bluesky): Who do you think was the best opponent the Eagles played this year (Ravens?) and how much better are the Chiefs?
The Ravens were in my opinion very clearly the best team the Eagles played this season. They finished 1st in DVOA, 3rd in point differential, and personally speaking, when I dove in a bit on each team this season for my preview articles (and I'm including the Chiefs here, since that work is mostly done, but not yet published), the Ravens pretty clearly had the most going for them.
Question from @nicknugget: I feel almost hopeless playing the Chiefs. They just feel like a team of destiny at this point. Should I not be such a negative nelly?
I mean, there's certainly some level of "They just win" baked into the line for this game. I can say above that the Ravens were the better team this year, and in my opinion the Eagles are better than the Chiefs as well, but as usual the Chiefs are playing for another Super Bowl, because, you know, they just win. So I get that.
Question from Luke35453679: If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, will Jalen Hurts rank higher than Donovan McNabb in Eagles folklore?
Question right back at you â Does Nick Foles rank higher than McNabb in Eagles folklore? Does Joe Blanton rank higher than, sayyyy, Aaron Nola in Phillies folklore?
I think thatâs your answer.
Question from @BigFeist73: If a Zack Baun contract proves difficult, any chance the Eagles franchise tag him?
I've answered this in a previous mailbag, but that was before Baun ended up being a finalist for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Baun's agent did a few back flips whenever he learned that Baun was a nominee for that award, and that recognition is going to make him harder to sign, in my opinion.
So, spoiler, it's going to be difficult. But they almost certainly will not franchise tag him. First, how are franchise tag amounts calculated? Per OverTheCap:
Franchise and transition tenders are calculated by adding the respective tag numbers, divided by the sum of the salary caps, from the previous five seasons, and finally multipled by the current season's salary cap. Franchise tag figures are based upon the top five salaries at each respective position, while transition tag figures are based on the top ten.
The top three franchise tag projections, by position, again via OverTheCap
Quarterback:Â $41,325,000 Linebacker:Â $27,050,000 Wide receiver:Â $25,693,000You might be thinking, "But wait, I thought linebackers didn't really get paid like that. Why is that the second-highest positional group?"
Well, the NFL doesn't differentiate between off-ball linebackers and edge rushers who are listed as "linebackers" when computing franchise tag numbers. There are a lot of very well-paid edge rushing "linebackers" pumping that number up.
The Eagles are not going to franchise tag any off-ball linebacker at $27 million.
Question from @theronlongley: Which would you prefer as part of your edge rotation next Sunday: A healthy Bryce Huff or a semi-healthy BG?
Huff isn't part of the rotation at all, even when Graham was on IR. He played 1 snap against the Packers in the Wild Card Round, none against the Rams in the Divisional Round, and he got some mop-up duty against the Commanders in a blowout in the NFC Championship Game. Fangio employed a three-man rotation with Josh Sweat, Nolan Smith, and Jalyx Hunt.
So if Graham can play (and it's looking like he will), I imagine they'll determine what he is still able to do well, and play in spots where it makes sense. But to answer your question, a semi-healthy BG in some small role would probably be more effective than anything Huff is going to give you at this point.
Question from @Mike Shemesh: What is the order of roster players to be sacrificed for BG and/or Britain Covey if they are activated?
My guess is that Covey won't be activated. As for who feels like the odd man out if they elevate Graham to the 53-man roster, I'd go with Nick Gates, who (a) won't be active on gameday, and (b) will be a free agent in a month anyway.
Question from @jested18 (via Bluesky): Here's a non-football Superbowl one. Out of curiosity, how do journalists booking their Super Bowl plans work? Like, does someone hold rooms somewhere for each teams' beats? Or is it up to individuals to eventually make the call of "Huh, I should book a room and flight in case my team makes it?"
Well, to begin, I had a room booked in Detroit from way back in case the Eagles had to play there in the NFC Championship Game. Hotels are typically very easy to cancel with no penalty if you're booking through the Hilton or Marriott chains. I did not book a flight for that game, though some other beats did. I couldn't have been happier to cancel that room when the Commanders beat the Lions in the Divisional Round.
As for the Super Bowl, the NFL sets aside a block of rooms in a few hotels that reporters can book after the conference championship games. That part is easy.
The harder part is figuring out flights. Most reporters covering the Super Bowl teams will fly out Sunday, a week in advance, since media access begins on Monday. You could get a different answer from every beat writer on how they ended up booking their flights, but I booked a United flight one-way from Newark to New Orleans during the week leading up to the NFC Championship Game, confident that I could easily just use flight credits for the NFL Combine if I needed to cancel that flight.Â
The return flights the Monday after the Super Bowl back to the Philly/Newark/Baltimore/Trenton/NYC airports were all crazy expensive already by then, so I held off. The only reasonable flights were via Spirit, which I avoid like the plague, along with Frontier. There was no way in hell I was booking a Spirit flight and getting credits back if the Eagles didn't make the Super Bowl, because I'd never want to use those in the future. Bite the bullet and book Spirit because it's the only reasonable option? Sure. Book it and then have to get credits back? Hell no.Â
I ended up booking that Spirit flight after the Eagles went up 41-23 in the fourth quarter.
On a side note, there's nothing more that beat writers like to talk about more with each other than travel plans for road games, so this was a very welcomed question.
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