Exclusive Herald poll reveals dramatic shift in Scottish political landscape
A new poll reveals another seismic shift in Scottish politics, with the SNP set to dominate Holyrood as Labour's support collapses.
Meanwhile, if a Westminster election was held tomorrow, it would be almost a complete reversal of last year’s result, with the SNP winning most seats.
READ MORE: Why polling expert thinks Starmer is the worst thing ever to happen to Sarwar
Scottish Labour's fortunes have declined following a number of unpopular decisions taken by Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, including the scrapping of the universal winter fuel payment for pensioners and the party's reneging on a promise to compensate WASPI women.
John Swinney and Anas Sarwar (Image: Jane Barlow/PA)
The Find Out Now survey for The Herald found that while support for the SNP had also slipped, Labour’s collapse is so substantial that they are set to come a distant second place when voters head to the polls in May 2026.
John Swinney’s party has seen its vote drop to 31% on the constituency vote, down four points on the firm’s last poll just before Christmas. On the list vote, they are down 1 at 25%.
A surge of support for the Scottish Greens sees them on 10% on the constituency vote and 13% on the list, while Alba — the pro-independence party formed by the late Alex Salmond — is on 2% and 7%.
According to modelling by polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice, that would be enough for the SNP to win 51 seats, the Greens 15, and Alba 8.
That would give the pro-independence parties 74 MSPs, leaving Holyrood with a pro-independence majority of 74.
Even without a deal with Alba, the SNP and the Greens would still have a majority of three.
Meanwhile, Labour’s constituency vote is unchanged at 19% while its list vote is down two to 15%.
Professor Curtice said that would put Labour on just 16 seats, down six on their result at the 2021 election.
The Lib Dems have seen a boost to their numbers, up one point on the constituency vote to 10% and up three points to 13 on the list, giving them 15 seats, a jump on the four won at the last election.
Like many other polls, The Herald poll shows growing support for Nigel Farage’s Reform. They have 13% on the constituency and 11% on the list, while the Tories are down three and one, taking them to 12% and 13%.
That would mean Russell Findlay’s party winning 15 seats, while Reform would take nine.
When asked how they would vote if a Westminster election was held tomorrow, of the 1,334 people questioned by Find Out Now between 15 and 20 January, 31% said SNP, while 18% said Labour.
They were only just ahead of Reform who are on 17%.
Meanwhile, the Tories are on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 7% and others on 5%.
Despite the strong showing from Nigel Farage’s party, the nature of the first past the post system means Refom UK would not return any MPs.
According to Prof Curtice’s analysis that would give the SNP 31 seats, Labour 11, the Lib Dems six and the Tories five.
Prof Curtice said: “All of the SNP’s seats would be constituency seats and almost undoubtedly what is going on is, of course, that under the Holyrood system it’s possible for the party to win more than its proportionate share in the constituency contest and therefore the compensatory mechanism of the list doesn’t fully compensate for that.”
He added: “In other words, the electoral system could work in the nationalists’ advantage and we still have a possibility of an SNP regime even though its support would be well, well down on what it was in 2021.”
The University of Strathclyde academic said Labour’s vote was falling faster north of the border than in England.
“So much of the Labour pitch in July was a plague on both your houses – and now they are responsible for one of the houses that pitch is much more difficult to sustain.
“And I guess the SNP must be wishing ‘Could we have another Westminster election so we could have our MPs back?’ but of course that’s not going to happen.
“To be honest, the polling tells us there is no dramatic breakthrough here, it is just that Labour’s difficulties seem to continue.
“Reform’s rise is well-maintained. The SNP if anything is slipping back on these polls compared to previous polls.
“But the point here is the SNP finds itself where they are basically because Labour's support has imploded.
“That just gives the SNP the chance of forming the next government, albeit from a rather weaker position than it is at the moment.”
Professor Curtice said Reform was picking up votes from all the other parties.
"We’re looking at about a quarter of the Tory vote in [last year’s general election] going to Reform and one in eight of the Labour vote going to Reform.
“We’ve got about 6% of the Liberal Democrat vote going to Reform and 3% SNP.
“That largely reflects what we’re seeing elsewhere. Essentially, Reform is picking up a predominantly Unionist vote. They are fracturing the Unionist vote north of the border even more.
“It is that fracturing of the Union vote that helps to create the prospect that we end up with another Nationalist majority in Holyrood.”
SNP MSP George Adam said he was encouraged by the results: "Under Anas Sarwar's weak leadership, Labour in Scotland is barely clinging on to second place and is within touching distance of fifth.
"Being only one seat ahead of the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Tories is a disaster for Anas Sarwar."
Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said “Labour has put an end to 14 years of Tory chaos and is working to fix the foundations and transform our country.
“Now we need a change of direction in Scotland to put an end to SNP failure and decline.
“Scottish Labour will work tirelessly to earn voters trust and demonstrate that we can deliver the new direction our country so badly needs.”
A spokesperson for the Scottish Tories said: “Under Russell Findlay’s leadership, we’re standing up for all those who just want politicians to show some common sense for a change.
“Only the Scottish Conservatives are standing against Holyrood’s cosy left-wing consensus which spends its time focusing on fringe issues, rather than Scots real concerns."
Scottish Green co-leader Lorna Slater said: “This would be a record result for the Scottish Greens and would allow us to deliver even more of the change that Scotland needs.
“A lot of people are feeling angry and let down by a Labour government that promised change but has refused to end Tory cuts, inflicted fuel poverty on pensioners, kept the cruel two child cap and armed the genocide in Gaza."
Martyn Greene, Scotland organiser for Reform UK, said there were a lot of "fed up" Scots who were "attracted to the freshness" of his party.
He added: “People from all political parties in Scotland are beginning to see Reform as a serious and credible alternative.”
Alba Party Holyrood Leader Ash Regan said: “This poll demonstrates clearly that the more list votes the Alba Party receives, the greater a focused pro-independence majority will be after the next election."
She added: "We will push on with our record of delivery and ambitious vision for Scotland as we look forward to capitalising the outcomes from the ballot box next year to deliver independence for Scotland.”
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