NFL Divisional Round Bettors Guide: Rust not enough to slow down Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Rest or rust? Let’s put it this way. This isn’t Andy Reid’s first rodeo.
TEXANS at CHIEFS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Chiefs by 8, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Rest or rust? Let’s put it this way. This isn’t Andy Reid’s first rodeo. The guy knows what he’s doing and how to prepare his team, not to mention having both Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones (who hasn’t played since Week 15) back at full strength. There’s a difference between regular season and postseason mode and we should see that here. That’s not to say that Reid will have to divert much from the Week 16 playbook that saw the Chiefs control the ball for nearly 34 minutes in an important 27-19 win, using a run-heavy attack. The best way to slow down the Texans’ pass rush is to run at them.
C.J. Stroud is fortunate the game isn’t being played Sunday, when the KC weather dips to two degrees. Still, he is going to have to prove he can function in 16-degree weather because his outdoor numbers, even in good conditions, are far worse than his dome stats. Kansas City, with Jones hunkering down in the middle of the defensive front, has a chance to own this game in the pits against a mistake-prone Houston O-line. When Tank Dell was hurt in the regular season meeting, it changed the dynamic of the game. The Texans still haven’t filled that void.
Some insist the Chiefs are the worst No. 1 seed in a while. They say that at their own peril. The Chiefs historically know how to turn it on at the right times, and they showed some of that down the stretch of the regular season. They usually don’t cover big spreads but this one could have been bigger. The Texans had a walkover win over a flawed Chargers team that wasn’t ready to play playoff football. No free gifts this week. The Chiefs exploit every Houston weakness and coast at home. We’ve seen this act before.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the under.
COMMANDERS at LIONSSaturday, 8 p.m., Lions by 8 ½, 56
HANK’S HONEYS: Jayden Daniels enters the Lions’ den against a Detroit defense that played above its heads against the Vikings. The rookie QB, who plays with the poise of a five-year veteran, can be dynamic on the fast track of Ford Field. But can he keep pace with the Lions, an attack as explosive as any since the days of the Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf?
Jared Goff and the Lions are going to score their points. The Commanders couldn’t deal with Mike Evans. They’re not going to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown with Marshon Lattimore. David Montgomery is back and that O-line is going to wear down a Washington front that can’t stop the run (4.8 ypc) to begin with. What’s more, the uber-talented, uber-motivated Lions have been pointing all year to this game. Are they going to let a rookie QB come in and still their dream?
It may be a crazy total but both teams will be going up and down the field. The Lions have scored at least 31 points in their last five games and that would require just 25 points from the Commanders against the Lions’ wobbly D, which benefitted greatly from Sam Darnold’s poor performance. They’ve been blitzing at a high rate to compensate for their deficiencies and Daniels has good numbers against the blitz. But the Lions don’t mind playing games like this. Dan Campbell is confident his team can outscore anybody’s. And with both coaches unafraid to gamble on fourth down, that leads to good field position no matter the outcome of the play.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
RAVENS at BILLS6:30 p.m., Ravens by 1 ½, 52
HANK’S HONEYS: This falls into our regular season look but don’t touch category. There is no clear ATS winner, given the MVP credentials of both QBs. Either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson can make the game-winning play, although this is the round where Jackson usually stubs his toe. Will he here?
The difference this time is Derrick Henry, the one type of back built for the playoffs as well as this anticipated weather. Although getting LB Matt Milano back will certainly help, run defense is Buffalo’s weakest link. The Ravens will certainly learn from the pass-happy game plan they took into last year’s playoff loss to the Chiefs. And when Henry isn’t plowing up the middle, Jackson can get around the edge with RPOs, with Milano likely shadowing him as a spy. Allen can almost match Jackson’s prowess as a runner but he doesn’t have Jackson’s weapons. The game is more on his shoulders than Jackson’s. The Ravens also have the better defense. The Bills couldn’t move the ball against them in the regular season meeting and while both teams have changes considerably since then, it’s worth noting that Baltimore’s defense has been arguably the AFC’s best since Week 11.
The sharp money came in on the Ravens early as soon as the Bills opened as favorites. With familiar conditions of 18 degrees, snow and 20 MPH wind gusts, the Bills figure to have a home field advantage but the Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.
RAMS at EAGLES3 p.m., Eagles by 6, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Their win against the Vikings was emotion-fueled given the LA wildfires but it’s too much to ask of the Rams to fly to Philly and retain the edge after another chaotic week. Yes, this Rams’ defense has grown up over the course of the season and is playing as good as any. But they’re not going to see a Sam the Sham-like performance out of Jalen Hurts nor will they dominate up front against the Eagles’ O-line as they try to plug holes against Saquon Barkley, who ran wild for 255 yards in the first meeting. That kind of pounding usually pays dividends in the second half, where Philly has dominated all season. The Rams may have to sell out against the run, leaving A.J. Brown and DaVonte Smith singled up against a Rams secondary that could be missing CB Ahkello Witherspoon. Hurts has had another week to shake off the rust and it’s time for that passing game to step up. Hurts also has the wheels to avoid the rush.
As he proved against the Vikings, Matthew Stafford is a blitz beater but the Eagles don’t blitz. Vic Fangio brings pressure with his fearsome front and in Week 12, that led to five sacks and just 4.8 yards per pass attempt.
There is a possibility of snow in the forecast, depending on the temperature, but they should see rain, at least. That, and, given that both teams love to run the ball, has us on the under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
BEST BET: Chiefs. Healthy and happy.
LAST WEEK: 3-3, 4-2 over/under
BEST BETS (POST-SEASON): 1-0
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