Nuggets Journal: Will Russell Westbrook stay in starting lineup when Denver is healthy?
Russell Westbrook has displayed extraordinary chemistry with Nikola Jokic. But if he remains a starter for the Nuggets once they’re at full strength, who won’t?
As Aaron Gordon’s calf heals, Michael Malone faces what can only be described as a good problem.
The Nuggets have been steadily trending in the right direction, even while dealing with a variety of injuries to starters, most notably Gordon. During the most recent nine-game stretch that he spent on the sideline, Malone went small with his starting lineup, opting to start Russell Westbrook instead of Peyton Watson and repurposing Michael Porter Jr. as a power forward.
The results have been successful enough to raise the question of whether Westbrook should remain in the starting lineup with Denver at full strength.
“We’ll jump off that bridge when we get to it,” Malone said this week in Dallas. “We’re gonna take a really cautious approach with Aaron Gordon. … Everything’s on the table. We’re gonna do whatever’s best for our team.”
Gordon is currently on a tight minutes restriction, which allows Malone to bring him off the bench and delay any lineup decisions. But the fact that Malone has not ruled out the possibility of a change to the starting five is, of course, an indication that he’s considering it.
It’s a problem because none of Denver’s five regular starters have done anything to warrant what risks coming across as a demotion. It’s a good problem because having more than five players worthy of starting is ultimately a refreshing situation for a team facing broader concerns about its depth.
So how should Malone navigate this? First, someone has to be identified as the most sensible player for Westbrook to replace. Jamal Murray is firmly off the table. His efficiency as a secondary scorer has improved throughout the season, and even if that wasn’t the case, he has meant too much to the franchise to consider benching. Michael Porter Jr. should be off the table as well. He has been far too good, and his floor spacing is far too essential.
There’s more of an argument that can be made for Gordon coming off the bench permanently — he’s versatile and selfless enough to be effective in any lineup, and Denver’s starters excelled while he was out. But again, overall cache within the organization should be taken into account. Gordon, Porter, Murray and Nikola Jokic make up the “core four” responsible for a championship.
That leaves Christian Braun, a third-year player and first-year starter who often operates as Denver’s lead defensive guard — a role Westbrook also occupies occasionally.
Malone has consistently praised the 23-year-old Braun throughout his transition into the starting five, where he’s replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. At the 40-game mark. the Nuggets’ status-quo lineup — the core four plus Braun — had a 5.1 net rating in 220 minutes of playing time.
When it’s the core four plus Westbrook, Denver’s net rating is 16.9, albeit in a much smaller sample size of 48 minutes.
Crucially, Jokic looms over all analytics. He is the constant variable. When he is on the floor, the net rating is always going to be in the black, almost regardless of how Malone builds the lineup around him.
Jokic’s rest minutes are more fraught with danger. Malone described them earlier this season as “man’s search for meaning.”
So which player is better equipped to handle minutes without the MVP?
When Braun and Jokic are on the floor together and Westbrook is off (499 minutes), the Nuggets have a 10.6 net rating. Westbrook on the court, without Jokic and Braun, is a minus-13.9 (233 minutes).
Now flip it around: When Westbrook and Jokic are on the floor and Braun is off (217 minutes), the Nuggets have a 6.1 net rating. Braun, without Jokic and Westbrook, is a plus 4.4 (144 minutes).
Those numbers illuminate the nuance of the situation. Both players benefit from playing alongside Jokic, but Westbrook lineups in particular have thrived with Jokic and struggled without. Westbrook’s greatest strength in Denver has been his chemistry with the center. When Jokic has the ball, Russ looks to cut. When Russ has the ball, he looks to feed Jokic. They’re the No. 3 assist duo in the NBA, and they’ve played 100 fewer minutes together than the top two combos.
Regardless of whether Westbrook is starting or coming off the bench, then, Malone will want to keep maximizing the veteran point guard’s minutes with Jokic.
But there’s a delicate balance between optimizing that combo and empowering Braun, who represents the long-term future of the Jokic-era Nuggets. Entering the starting lineup has been a key stage in his development, allowing him to play through shooting slumps; prosper as a top-three fast-break scorer in the league; and learn from his increased defensive reps against star guards and forwards.
There’s also a spacing dynamic to consider once Gordon is back in the starting lineup. He’s 42% from the 3-point line, which has been a massive boost for Denver’s short-on-shooting roster, but opponents may still feel inclined to sag off Gordon when he plays on the perimeter. The NBA is and always will be a reputation-based league. And Westbrook’s infamous reputation as a 3-point shooter has been etched in scouting reports for years. Teams will always dare him to fire away.
Like Gordon, Westbrook deserves credit. He’s making 33% of his 3s in Denver, his highest clip since the 2016-17 MVP season. But with him and Gordon on the floor together, the Nuggets are still asking for a clogged interior.
When Jokic, Gordon and Westbrook are on the court and Braun is off, their net rating is minus-6.4 (74 minutes). Braun is still trying to establish his own reputation as a shooter, but when he, Jokic and Gordon are on the floor and Westbrook is off, the team’s net rating is 5.9 (265 minutes). The defensive metrics are almost identical between those lineup variations; the offensive gap is 11 points per 100 possessions.
You could keep going down the rabbit hole of combinations from there. The layers to a decision like this are endless, and it’s possible there is no wrong answer — only pros and cons for Malone and his staff to weigh.
“We’ll evaluate as a staff when we are fully healthy what lineup gives us the best chance to go out there and win games at a high level,” he said. “I like how we’re playing right now. Our defense is much improved. Our 3-point defense is much improved. But whether we continue to bring Russ off the bench when we’re healthy or he starts, those are conversations that we’ll continue to have internally.”
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Originally Published: January 17, 2025 at 10:33 AM MST
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