Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Will Zoe Saldaña be ‘Emilia Perez’s’ Redemption or Is Ariana Grande Too ‘Popular’ to Lose?
2025 Oscars best supporting actress predictions include Ariana Grande, Zoe Saldaña, Isabella Rossellini, Monica Barbaro and Felicity Jones.
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
EMILIA PEREZ, Zoe Saldana, 2024. © Netflix /Courtesy Everett Collection ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett CollectionBest Supporting Actress commentary (Updated Feb. 6, 2025): The Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” made history by earning 13 Academy Award nominations, positioning itself as a frontrunner in major categories such as best international feature, original song (“El Mal”), supporting actress (Zoe Saldaña), and best picture. Before controversy engulfed the film, many awards pundits predicted it would take home multiple trophies. But amid intense backlash surrounding its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, its once-unstoppable momentum appears to be crumbling.
One Academy voter, who had initially planned to vote for Gascón for best actress, predicted serious repercussions for the film but expressed sympathy for Saldaña, saying: “I think it’s going to have a huge effect. It left a bad taste in people’s mouths. People are allowed to have their opinions, but I don’t want to live in a world where a racist and bigot is highlighted and rewarded. I was going to vote for her because I really did think she was extraordinary, but how could I now? I hope it doesn’t affect Zoe. It really shouldn’t. I don’t think people are that stupid.”
For Saldaña, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With four of the highest-grossing films of all time on her résumé, the actress has worked to distance herself from Gascón’s remarks, ensuring that her campaign remains intact. Now, with the streamer’s awards team pivoting hard to salvage her nomination, she may be the film’s last real shot at Oscar gold.
Standing in Saldaña’s way is a pop icon turned leading lady: Ariana Grande.
In “Wicked,” Grande’s take on Glinda is a scene-stealing mix of charm, wit, and razor-sharp comedic timing. At 31, the global superstar steps into one of musical theater’s most beloved roles and delivers in full force.
While musical performances don’t always land with Oscar voters in the acting categories, Grande’s transition from pop sensation to bona fide movie star could be the kind of industry narrative that sways ballots. Meanwhile, Saldaña’s campaign hinges on whether voters can separate her from the controversy engulfing “Emilia Pérez.”
The supporting actress race could come down to CCA, SAG and BAFTA, still on the horizon. Will Saldaña’s measured distance from the backlash secure her victory, or will Grande’s dazzling performance and fresh industry narrative push her over the edge?
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
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2024 category winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) Variety via Getty Images!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
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The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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