Oscars 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win and Why
With the nominations announced, we give a snapshot of where we think the race is currently headed in most major categories.
Weâve been doing this for a while now, and to be honest Best Picture is usually one of the easier races to call in most years (like last year or the year before it). By this point, narratives have taken root after the festivals, the critics groups awards, and industry chatter. But frankly 2025 is so wide open that even this morning I had to reevaluate my theory that Conclave could be this yearâs Spotlight (a consensus pick which benefits from the preferential voting ballot the Academy uses for BP).
As it turns out, the love for Conclave might be a lot less fervent in an Academy that conspicuously snubbed Edward Berger for Best Director and the filmâs immaculate cinematography, courtesy of StĂŠphane Fontaine. But you know who did get into that category? Paul Guilhaume for Emilia PĂŠrez, a nod that added to the filmâs massive 13-nomination haul. The industry love for PĂŠrez is visibly strong through all corners of the Academy, but is it stronger than the media backlash, particularly on apps like X and TikTok? To be sure, the frontrunner is still probably The Brutalist, a more elegant and epic achievement from director Brady Corbet.
The Brutalist is impressive work. However, it is also brooding, pensive, and ultimately pessimistic about the American immigrant experience. While that might reflect the feelings of a lot of Academy members right now, historically the Academy prefers films that uplift their spirits over those that leave them beleaguered. It is one reason why perceived frontrunner The Power of the Dog lost to CODA in 2022 (and Power wasnât 3.5 hours). Conversely, Emilia PĂŠrez sends a message of hope wherein a trans woman becomes a better person after her transition, leaving behind a lifestyle of murder and pain as a Mexican drug cartel leaderâeven as she is not fully absolved of her past sins.
There are plenty of reasons why Emilia PĂŠrez could still lose. No, not the social media hate. They also despised Green Book (which much more uncomfortably rewrote the life of Donald Shirley to fit its feel-good narrative). Furthermore, Emilia appeals to the international members of the Academy which are less concerned with American culture wars. But Emilia also is a Netflix release, and the Academy has adamantly refused to give the streaming service the Best Picture Oscar. But in such a wide open field as this, Netflix might have found its best opportunity to finally nab the top prize.
Meanwhile, I personally much prefer the elegiac grace and groundbreaking innovations of RaMell Rossâ Nickel Boys. Anora is also a one-of-a-kind movie that skewers the classism of our current world without being alleged of appropriating culture.
Sean Baker, AnoraBrady Corbet, The BrutalistJames Mangold, A Complete UnknownJacques Audiard, Emilia PĂŠrezCoralie Fargeat, The Substance