Super Bowl LIX QB DFS Pick: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts
Which QB should you play in your DFS lineup for the Super Bowl showdown between the Eagles and Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts?
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Jalen Hurts
No position gets more national attention than the quarterback position entering these championship matchups. For DFS enthusiasts, you have a 50/50 chance at selecting the right fantasy option for your lineup.
Here is a closer look at my rankings of these two DFS QB options for Super Bowl LIX.
Jalen HurtsThe idea of ranking anyone on any Super Bowl list above Patrick Mahomes feels disrespectful when putting the idea from pen to paper, but the fantasy stats we’ve seen from these two certainly suggest one player has the higher fantasy upside.
Jalen Hurts’ fantasy production over the last four years has been anchored by his elite rushing touchdown upside, where he has run for an absurd 52 rushing scores during that span. What is even more impressive is the high level of consistency, hitting the 10 rushing touchdown benchmark in all four of those seasons.
Hurts’ fantasy upside was never more apparent than his final stat line against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game with 246 passing yards with a touchdown pass to A.J. Brown while adding another three rushing scores over his 10 carries to deliver a monster fantasy outing.
To be honest, he delivered a very similar stat line the last time we saw him in the Super Bowl against this same opponent with 304 yards and a score through the air to go with another 70 yards and three rushing scores on the ground. This great individual performance may have still come in a losing effort, but Hurts still delivered the DFS goods with an excellent fantasy performance when trying to outduel Mahomes.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense is definitely a better unit than the one he saw previously in the Super Bowl and now has to contend with Saquon Barkley for rushing scores in the red area, but the fantasy upside is still undeniable given his unrivaled success of producing rushing touchdowns when the team gets on the doorstep of the goal line.
For this reason, I do give Hurts a slight fantasy edge in my DFS rankings at the QB position entering the Super Bowl.
Patrick MahomesGoing to three straight Super Bowls with a chance to secure a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy is already a feat that has never been accomplished by any NFL quarterback in the Super Bowl era. For this reason alone, it makes it incredibly difficult to bet against him in any capacity entering the game’s biggest stage.
Yet, I would ask you don’t take this ranking as an indictment of Mahomes’ ability to win on the biggest stage, but more-so how I expect the Chiefs to try to beat the Eagles in this contest.
Mahomes delivered the goods with one of his best fantasy outings in the AFC Championship Game with 288 total yards and three total touchdowns (one passing and two rushing) against the Buffalo Bills, but these numbers came against a defensive unit that certainly had it’s fair share of struggles over the back half of the season.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been one of the best units in the league all season – particularly against opposing passing attacks. This regular season the Eagles finished as a top 10 unit in every major statistical category, which includes scoring (2nd), total yards (1st), rushing (10th), and passing (1st) defense.
Have they faced off against the best quarterback in the league paired with one of the best offensive coaching mind yet this year? No, this unit will absolutely be tested by Mahomes and the rest of the Kansas City offense.
I expect Mahomes to have success moving the ball through the air by specifically trying to target players like Oren Burks and Cooper DeJean in coverage in the short to intermediate range of the field.
Yet, I do see his rushing upside being a bit more capped by a solid Eagles unit up front, led by Jalen Carter, and not having as much success taking off and running when he has Nolan Smith Jr. – who ran a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine – trying to run him down if Mahomes decides to scramble as much as he did against Buffalo.
Mahomes is still a solid DFS play in this spot, but does face the tougher matchup of these two options.
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