Vancouver Federal Election Riding Predictions: Can ‘Teflon’ Don Davies stay bulletproof in Vancouver Kingsway?

Davies has been an MP since 2008.

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Vancouver Kingsway started turning orange the day the federal election was called on March 23. Signs popped up on Victoria, Fraser, and Knight streets right away. And then they kept coming. There’s no exact stats on this, but it’s hard to fathom any election hopeful in the country with more signs than Vancouver Kingsway incumbent Don Davies. 

Davies’ team estimates that over 1,000 signs were put up across the riding over the first four days of the campaign. And now there are many more than that.

NDP MP Davies has been the riding's representative in parliament since 2008. Other than that year, in which Davies won by around 2,500 votes, elections in Vancouver Kingsway haven't been very close. That’s partly due to the work Davies, a former lawyer, has done for constituents, as his office helps with a litany of different issues. It’s also partly due to the riding’s profile and demographics. 

His value as an MP is evident—Davies was among the first in the country to raise the prospect of a national dental care program years before the Liberal-NDP coalition government made it a reality. 

But with the Liberal Party threatening to take away federal NDP seats across the country and province, there’s a very real chance that Davies—who is about as entrenched as an MP can possible be—is in danger. 

Riding profile

As mentioned above, Vancouver Kingsway has been orange since 2008. It runs from about 16th Avenue to 41st (with some exceptions) and from Main Street to Boundary. One of its main provincial counterparts, Vancouver Renfrew, has elected NDP MLA and former health minister Adrian Dix, since 2005. 

In the latest city council byelection, the voting stations located in the riding like at Trout Lake Community Centre and Renfrew Park Community Centre, overwhelmingly voted for left-leaning candidates Sean Orr and Lucy Maloney. There are strong East Asian and Southeast Asian populations in the riding. 

The main contenders

Don Davies, NDP

See above. 

Amy K. Gill, Liberal Party

Gill is currently the CFO for the Vancouver Chinatown Foundation. She was raised in Surrey and her campaign describes her as an “active community leader, having served on numerous boards throughout her career,” citing examples like RainCity Housing and DIVERSEcity. She reportedly doesn’t live in the riding. 

Gill’s campaign is very much linked to the national stage (notable in that Davies’ campaign is more of an individualistic one), as a ton of her marketing and social media uses Carney’s image and words.

Her campaign has also been the subject of disinformation claims. The prevailing message of the campaign seems to be “Vote for us to stop Pierre Poilievre,” even as that’s not really a thing in this riding. A more accurate depiction would be “Vote for us to avoid the Liberals having to work with anyone else in government.” And we’re not sure that message would resonate in this riding (or many others). 

Ravinder Bhatia, Conservative Party

Like Gill, Bhatia reportedly doesn’t live in the riding. Unlike Gill, he’s been more or less invisible. He didn’t attend all-candidates meetings in the riding and he doesn’t have a website. Very cool how the Conservatives run people in ridings like this who clearly don’t care at all and they still get thousands of votes! 

Imtiaz Popat, Green Party

Media producer and mental health worker Popat will be hard pressed to get five percent of the vote in this one. 

The odds

This has been a contentious one. Not long ago, poll aggregator 338 Canada had this riding as an easy Liberal win. Many have since noted that 338 uses data from across the country and assigns that into select ridings—it doesn’t do individual riding polls. Right now, 338 has it as a toss-up, with the Liberals slightly in the lead. Just looking at last election’s numbers—Davies got 50 percent of the vote—that would be a shocker. But the national conversation is of course leaning red. 

The prediction

Maybe we’re taking national polls for granted. But with the amount of signs and goodwill for Davies in the riding, we’re calling for him to win again. It should be close, but not quite as close as 338 says. We’re thinking he wins with at least five percent more of the vote than Gill. 

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